Final March Madness Projections 2016

Just in time for tip-off of game number one, here are the region-by-region probabilistic projections for the 2016 tournament.

This model, like many others that can be found around the internet at this time of year, uses power ratings as the core of its projection algorithm.  But it also includes three additional adjustments based on game location, tournament experience on the roster, and the coach’s track record of tournament success.





  • The model likes three times as title favorites: Kansas, North Carolina, and Michigan State.  North Carolina.
  • In two regions, the (2) seed has a better chance of reaching the Final Four than the (1) seed.
  • Oregon is the most vulnerable (1) seed.  Xavier is the most vulnerable (2) seed.
  • This year, (9) and (11) seeds are particularly strong.  All four (9) seeds are favored to win their first game.  One (11) seed, Gonzaga, is a healthy favorite, while two more, Michigan and Wichita State, are virtually even in their first round matchup.
  • Yale is the most likely (12) or higher seeded team to make it through the first round.
  • (14) seeds look a little more dangerous than (13) seeds this year.

Happy March Madness to all!


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